Indablog

Once again, John Edwards prevailed in every dimension of the Tuesday Tracker poll for the Democratic candidates, held September 11, 2007. That week’s Democratic poll saw a large jump in turnout over previous weeks (though at 147 votes, it’s still pretty small). Ron Paul took the Republican poll in another dominant showing.

Edwards was stronger than ever. For most of the day he was sitting on a first round victory, but there was enough diversity of a turnout toward the end to force a brief runoff.

Only 3 (4%) of the 70 participants who gave Edwards their 1st rank voted indicated no 2nd choice. Dennis Kucinich followed with 32 1st rank votes in the DEM poll, with 7 (22%) of those supporters providing no 2nd rank choice. In the GOP poll, by comparison, Ron Paul received 73 1st rank votes, of which 28 (38%) offered no 2nd rank vote.

Relative willingness to grant 2nd and lower rank choices to other candidates in the same party can be taken as a measure of how readily a candidate’s supporters will participate in coalition building as a crowded field narrows, or during a brokered convention.

Though Kucinich took the 2nd highest number of 1st rank votes among the Dems, Barack Obama collected far more 2nd and 3rd rank choices, and thus beat Kucinich in the dimenson that measures depth of support. That behavior is one of the virtues of the ranked choice/instant runoff format. It’s also been displayed at the monthly poll here, where a 1st round lead by Gravel supporters was eventually overcome by Edwards as the consenus alternative.

Wesley Clark got a huge bump in the September Buzz poll (which includes popular but unannounced candidates) just before he endorsed Hillary Clinton. At the time of this writing, he’s still beating Al Gore. Who did Clark’s supporters prefer as their next choice? Out of 43 votes, 26% offered no 2nd rank choice at all. Gore picks up the lion’s share of the rest, followed by Biden and Obama. Edwards is back in the pack, and only one would have supported Clinton.

Only 16 Tuesday Tracker participants also voted in the Presidential Priorities poll. Edwards voters tended to rank the war in Iraq as their top priority, while Kucinich voters emphasized health care.

GOP Results

Filed under: Indaba Polls