Indablog

I just sent this letter to the operator of USA Election Polls.

Hi,

Thanks for providing the link to Choiceranker last week. Quite a few ballots were posted because of it, and I thought you might be interested in the results.

First off, I should point out that you linked to a May 2007 poll that I keep open for testing and QA purposes. There are links for some fresher polls down below.

There was an overwhelming response from Ron Paul supporters. That strength has been typical for online polls so far this year.

Two observations stand out about the response of the Paul supporters.

1. In the pre-August polling, nearly half of the Paul supporters were unwilling to state an alternate choice. That ratio has dropped precipitously, to less than 25 percent. I consider this to be an imprtant score in ranked choice polls, because it shows the extent to which voters are comfortable as “team players” within their party. My preliminary conclusion is that Paul supporters are starting to learn more about which other candidates can satisfy their most pressing concerns.

2. Among those Paul supporters who do provide a 2nd choice, there’s been a dramatic shift: Mike Huckabee has lept past Tom Tancredo. Newt Gingrich and Duncan Hunter also make showings.

Of course, this poll isn’t “scientific.” Participants in online polls are a self-selected group. But the results to speak to the energy of a candidate’s constituency. Just as some candidates have an advantage in the money race, some show their strength online. Other signs that tell how the race is going include the turnout at public rallies, the shifting judgments of the chattering class, and the elbow-throwing among the candidates themselves.

Though Paul continues to do extremely well in Republican online polls for now (in fact, dominating many of them), I believe this is likely to change by the end of the year. Interest in online straw polling will probably get a significant boost from showcase projects like the MySpace primary. The publicity will prompt other campaigns to mobilize more participation.

For now, frankly, turnout is so low that the results can be said to provide a little more that snapshot of the thinking within a few relatively isolated corners of cyberspace.

Still, the Paul supporters may represent the avant-garde of a movement toward a more vibrant, representative, and even authoritative online democratic community.

To see if this is right, I’ve started a series of weekly polls called the “Tuesday Tracker.” It will be open for 28 hours, from 11 PM Monday night till 3AM Wednesday EST.

This week’s current Republican poll is at
http://www.choiceranker.com/election.php?eid=106

There is one for Democrats at
http://www.choiceranker.com/election.php?eid=105

And another for Unity08 at
http://www.choiceranker.com/election.php?eid=107

Month-long polls are accessible throught the front page at
http://www.choiceranker.com/

I don’t know if you can post this in time for today’s poll, but if you can use this text and the analysis, perhaps you can help me announce the polls for subsequent weeks.

Thanks again,

Craig Simon

Filed under: Indaba Polls